2022 Economic outlook @ Straz
by Joe · 48 things on Twos
- Private notes
- Jane Castor speaking
- “New Covid-19 is going to shoot up like a rocket”
- Frank Hibbard - Clearwater mayor speaking
- Tampa is growing at an unprecedented pace
- “Labor and supply chain will continue to be an issue”
- JW Marriott coming to Clearwater beach
- Jeff Korzenik (Chief Investment Strategist of fifth third back)
- The reckoning will be the result of the loss of GDP created, labor force challenges, supply chain challenges caused by the pandemic
- High inflationary rates for the foreseeable future
- “Google mobility data” shows that food and retail demand is coming back and is close to stabilized
- Unemployment is down but federal economic spending is staying extremely high
- Fed will start hiking rates this year (gradually)
- “The fed will be very reluctant to raise rates due to the lack of people in the workforce but they will have to do it”
- Expecting 3 rate hikes this year
- There is a big problem with baby boomers exiting the work force and the lack of the new generation joining the workforce
- The people who lost their jobs in the pandemic do not want the jobs that are available post pandemic
- Augmented unemployment benefits made that an easy decision for those without jobs
- But as those benefits are ending, more people are facing the music
- The labor force issue is the largest one in our near term future
- “Labor force participation rate” is lower than ever
- Joel Stevens (senior managing director for Bernstein wealth management)
- Fireside chat
- “Eric”
- We are about to experience some very turbulent times. And the best strategy is a passive strategy. Especially with equities through index funds.
- The build back better bill is a government spending bill so it will have inflationary elements.
- If we’re concerned that inflation will be too high in 9-10 months, then rates need to be raised now
- And it is his belief that it will happen before March.
- The concern is that if the rate hikes do not stabilize inflation, the fed will be hard pressed to balance the economy for the first time in almost 20 years.
- The biggest economic threat that we face right now is inequality
- Having a more equal distribution of wealth is the best way to have growth from stimulus.
- Because people coming from different walks of life will use stimulus money differently. Some people will use it to survive and other people will pocket it.
- Inequality also creates polarization in politics
- How can you plan from a business perspective if the economic policies are changing every 4 years
- There are 3 ways that levels of inequality were experiencing has been stabilized
- Recession - but the Covid recession didn’t work
- Wars - common enemy for people to unite against
- Revolutions
- Tax code - tax the wealthy, spend on the poor
- “Would you rather see a mob with pitch forks at your door at 4am or the tax man”
- There are huge opportunities right now
- Covid accelerated changes that were already underway for our economy
- The enhancements of productivity are exponential - an evolutionary change
- Maybe businesses need to invest less in office space and more in technology
- Matthew Harrell speaking
- Rent growth will continue in Tampa. We are one of the fastest growing economies in the nation.
- Population growth is going to drive rents in all assets classes
- Real estate will remain a highly sought after investment