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Week 3 (+0.5u)

Week 3 (+0.5u)

by Joe · 41 things on Twos

1u South Carolina +32 ✅
Georgia still has no JT Daniels at QB and the SC front 7 has been unbelievable the first two, games. I think they can get to Stetson Bennett and give him issues and we saw last year against Florida, when he started and played horrible against a DL that got to him. This will be much different than UAB. Luke Doty is expected to be 100% at QB for SC this week. SC is also 2-0 ATS this year and I expected, them to be great ATS in the post-Muschamp era outperforming their expectations so I think they continue to do that. SC also upset Georgia outright as big dogs last time they went to Athens so guys, on this team know they can go there and compete.
1.5u Cincinnati -3 (tap here) ✅
play to -3.5, follow on Action to get best lines
If the players and coaches on these two teams were swapped and Desmond Rider was quarterbacking Indiana under Luke Fickell and playing Cincinnati, this line would be more than 4. Cincinnati has been a top-10 team in college football for the past two years but still isn't totally getting the respect because they're a Group of 5 school. Cincinnati went 9-1 last year, their lone loss being to Georgia on a last-second field goal in the Sugar Bowl. They went 6-4 ATS last year despite being massive favorites in a lot of conference games. I think this Cincy team is the best G5 team we've seen in a long time, maybe ever in the current CFP format and they have something to prove this year. Despite their undefeated season last year they were never truly considered for the CFP because of their strength of schedule but this year they have Indiana and Notre Dame on their schedule and if they can pull out this win plus upset the Irish on the way to another undefeated season, I think they will be legitimately considered for the playoff.
Cincy has had two cupcake games so far this season and has looked dominant in both and with a bye, week next week, they truly have had nothing to focus on but this matchup with the Hoosiers all season., Meanwhile, Indiana had to come out Week One against a really good low team and got crushed by the, Hawkeyes. I was down on Indiana already going into this year after having a lot of good luck last season, and the low game proved they were due for this negative regression. No matter what the little number, next to Cincy says, there is no way Indiana will be as up for this game as they would a big-time Big Ten, game whereas this is one of the two biggest games of the year for Cincy.
Michael Penix was atrocious against low and Indiana just kept the ball on the ground for the most part, against Idaho so I think Penix will have little to no confidence going against this Bearcats defense that, was 3rd in the nation in defensive passing efficiency last season. The Bearcats should handle the, Indiana offense handily and grind the Hoosiers defense down with the dual-threat attack of Desmond, Ridder.
1.5u WVU -2.5 ✅
VA Tech is totally different on the road than at Lane. I'm still down on Fuente as a coach and think Doge should put up huge numbers on a VT secondary that didn't look totally convincing against MTSU last week.
VA tech D Line looks like shit
1u Florida +15 ✅
Play to +14
The Florida line is inflated because Bama is Bama. That stadium is gonna, be insane hosting Bama. Last time they played in the SEC Championship Game last year Florida hung, with them the whole way and covered. Both teams changed a lot but from a coaching perspective it proved Mullen can hang with Saban. Bama is 1-4 ATS in their L5 on the road vs teams with a winning record.
Florida found a new QB last week who totally changed their offense and now will be going with a 2 QB approach with a dual threat and a kid with a cannon arm that can also run so should be really hard to game plan against.
1u Memphis +3.5 ✅
North Texas has a shambolic OL and is struggling offensively and in the secondary. This is a good price on UAB to bounce back after getting smoked by Georgia last week.
1u UAB -12 ✅
The Tigers have scored over 90 points in their first two games and their new QB is playing amazing. NC State won the box score last week and Miss State is due for some negative regression. Tigers can win this game.
1u Tulane/Ole Miss o76 ✅
Tulane scored 35 against Oklahoma who is much better defensively than Miss. They also scored 69 last week. Ole Miss has scored 43 and 54 in their two games so far. Two high paced offenses and Miss will be content playing a shootout knowing they'll come out on top.
1.5u ASU -2.5 ❌
play to -3.5 for 1u, follow on Action for best lines*,
The Sun Devils have played two cupcakes so far this season but in a limited amount of time, they have, looked great, particularly QB Jayden Daniels. He is 30/41 for 307 yards and has run the ball 19 times for, 165 yards. I think Daniels is a monster and is going to give this BYU defense serious problems. BYU only, beat Arizona by 8 Week One (Arizona lost to San Diego State by 24 the next week) largely because, Arizona QB Gunner Cruz lit up the BYU defense and Daniels is significantly more talented and proven, than Cruz., BYU is just 13-18-1 ATS at home under Kalani Sitake (since 2016) so their "home field advantage" isn't, translating to their record ATS. I think Herm will have his guys prepared after being able to cruise the, first two weeks and no real lookahead next week. Meanwhile, this spot is terrible for BYU situationally. They are just coming off one of the biggest wins in recent program history, knocking off their arch-rival, Utah Utes for the first time in a decade where the fans stormed the field and I'm sure plenty of Diet Coke, was consumed by the BYU players and staff over the past few days. From a top to bottom talent perspective, Arizona State has a significant edge, especially at the, quarterback position. I think Sitake is a good coach but so is Herm Edwards across the sideline so Sitake, doesn't have the edge there that he has against other teams. Situationally BYU should be down big time, and I think Arizona State comes out firing in this game and never looks back.
1.5u GA State/UCLA MLP (-111) ❌
UCLA has been wildly impressive so far this season. I was high on them and they have outperformed, those high expectations. Fresno has looked impressive so far as well but this is two separate classes of, talent. UCLA run game rolls. I like this Georgia State team a lot and they've had two really tough games to start the year in Army and, UNC. I think in this spot they'll be locked in to get their first win of the season against a Charlotte team, I'm down on.
1.5u Miami/Penn State MLP (+102) ❌
Miami got crushed by Bama who is just in a different class but came back with a win against a good App, State team that shouldn't be undervalued. They now get to pick up another good win against a B1G team, and I think King and their athletes are just too fast for Sparty. MSU might try to muck this up but Miami, wins.
Whiteout. Bo Nix is a completely different QB at home vs on the road. I think he crumbles in this, environment and Penn State continues their impressive season so far with a W.
1u Vanderbilt +12 ❌
Play to +10.5
Stanford major let down spot flying east after a huge win over USC
and flying back to play UCLA next week. Vandy looked great picking up a road win against Colorado
State. They should slow this game and be competitive.
1u Temple +16.5 ❌
Play to +14
Jurkovich out.
Hedge with Temple 2H -5
1u GA Southern +23.5 ❌
Arkansas is in a major sandwich spot after upsetting Texas last week in their biggest win in years last week then plays Texas A&M next week. I think they'll be asleep for this spot and GaSo runs the triple option and in the SEC you never see that so it should be hard from them to prepare in a week where they have little to no focus.